1-Year
🧨 One-Year Outlook: High Activity, Persistent Risk
Developments: Over the next year, ANAMA is likely to maintain intensive clearance campaigns across retaken districts, with weekly statistics showing thousands of unexploded items neutralised and over a thousand hectares cleared at a time (Azernews, 2025-12-08).([azernews.az](https://www.azernews.az/nation/251304.html?utm_source=openai)) The ANAMA-UNDP International Centre of Excellence will move from concept towards practical training, hosting courses for domestic and foreign teams (UNDP, 2024-06-06).([azerbaijan.un.org](https://azerbaijan.un.org/en/270886-undp-and-anama-signed-statement-intent-cooperation-establishment-international-centre?utm_source=openai)) IDP returns to newly reconstructed towns and villages will accelerate, increasing exposure unless risk education keeps pace. Legal and diplomatic efforts to obtain complete mine maps from Armenia will likely continue without full success.
Risks: As reconstruction speeds up, construction workers and returning families may enter inadequately surveyed areas, raising casualty risk. Isolated high-profile accidents involving children or agricultural workers could erode public confidence and fuel political tensions. Funding shortfalls or procurement issues might delay acquisition of advanced detection equipment, slowing progress.
Outlook: Within one year, clearance momentum will remain strong but far from sufficient to normalise life across contaminated areas. Risk will stay high along the edges of cleared zones and in informal land use. Communication and community-level safety practices will be as important as technical progress.
2-Year
⛏️ Two-Year Outlook: Priority Corridors Cleared
Developments: In two years, main transport, energy and urban reconstruction corridors in several liberated districts are likely to be substantially cleared and in active use, enabling scaled housing, industrial and agricultural projects (APA, 2024-10-16).([en.apa.az](https://en.apa.az/social/12-of-azerbaijans-territory-is-contaminated-by-mines-and-unexploded-ordnance-451161?utm_source=openai)) Mine-risk education will probably be integrated into school curricula and local governance in high-risk areas. The International Centre may host regular regional trainings, positioning Azerbaijan as a knowledge hub for mine action in Eurasia (ANAMA, 2024-05-30).([anama.gov.az](https://anama.gov.az/en/news/209?utm_source=openai)) Casualty numbers should show a downward trend but not yet reach negligible levels.
Risks: Expanding economic activity can push land users into marginal, partially surveyed areas. Political pressure to declare areas safe ahead of evidence could endanger communities. If climate change increases floods or landslides, previously mapped contamination patterns may shift, complicating clearance.
Outlook: Two years out, a growing share of key land will be safely usable, supporting visible reconstruction and returns. However, large pockets of contamination will remain and require strict controls. Success will depend on resisting pressure to trade thoroughness for speed.
3-Year
🏡 Three-Year Outlook: Resettlement Versus Residual Threat
Developments: Within three years, tens of thousands more former IDPs are likely to be resettled in rebuilt settlements, with supporting infrastructure protected by systematic clearance (APA/UN DESA, 2023-07-05).([sdgs.un.org](https://sdgs.un.org/partnerships/accelerated-pathways-sdg-progress-azerbaijans-national-commitments-sustainable?utm_source=openai)) Agricultural revival in selected valleys and plains will proceed on land prioritised for demining, boosting local incomes. Azerbaijan's diplomatic framing of mine action as part of its sustainable development agenda will be more institutionalised, with SDG18 referenced in national and international reporting (UN DESA, 2023-07-05).([sdgs.un.org](https://sdgs.un.org/partnerships/accelerated-pathways-sdg-progress-azerbaijans-national-commitments-sustainable?utm_source=openai))
Risks: Economic incentives may drive encroachment into uncleared hillsides, forests and riverbanks, where mines and UXO remain dense, raising incident risk. If victim assistance and rehabilitation services lag, social and psychological impacts could remain severe despite fewer new casualties. Re-politicisation of responsibility for mines in regional fora might hinder technical cooperation.
Outlook: Three years from now, demining will have enabled significant resettlement and economic use, but the humanitarian and environmental legacy will still be visible. The main challenge will be managing the interface between cleared, partially cleared and uncleared zones. Long-term victim support will remain an essential complement to clearance metrics.
5-Year
🌾 Five-Year Outlook: From Emergency To Structured Management
Developments: By year five, Azerbaijan can plausibly move from an emergency-crisis mine situation toward a structured long-term risk-management phase in much of the affected area. Most major roads, residential zones and priority agricultural lands in liberated districts could be cleared to a degree that allows normalised economic activity, albeit with ongoing monitoring (APA, 2024-10-16).([en.apa.az](https://en.apa.az/social/12-of-azerbaijans-territory-is-contaminated-by-mines-and-unexploded-ordnance-451161?utm_source=openai)) The International Centre may routinely train foreign teams, exporting expertise and technology developed in Azerbaijan (UNDP, 2024-06-06).([azerbaijan.un.org](https://azerbaijan.un.org/en/270886-undp-and-anama-signed-statement-intent-cooperation-establishment-international-centre?utm_source=openai)) Annual casualty numbers should be markedly lower than in the early 2020s, though not zero.
Risks: Donor fatigue or shifts in global priorities could reduce external support, slowing progress in non-priority areas. If economic development exacerbates environmental degradation, unexploded ordnance might be exposed in new ways. Generational memory of mine risks could fade, especially among youth, leading to complacency.
Outlook: In five years, demining success will be increasingly measured by how safely and productively land is used, not just by hectares cleared. Priority zones may resemble post-conflict areas in the Balkans where mines are a managed residual risk. Peripheral and environmentally sensitive areas will likely still require substantial work.
10-Year
🌍 Ten-Year Outlook: Residual Risk And Regional Leadership
Developments: A decade from now, most economically vital corridors and communities could be substantially cleared, with mine incidents relatively rare and widely recognised safety protocols in place. Azerbaijan may position itself as a regional leader in mine action, exporting both expertise and technology through its Centre of Excellence and partnerships with UNDP and others (UNDP, 2024-06-06).([azerbaijan.un.org](https://azerbaijan.un.org/en/270886-undp-and-anama-signed-statement-intent-cooperation-establishment-international-centre?utm_source=openai)) The legal framing of mine action as a national SDG will likely have shaped planning, budgeting and international reporting for an entire cycle (UN DESA, 2023-07-05).([sdgs.un.org](https://sdgs.un.org/partnerships/accelerated-pathways-sdg-progress-azerbaijans-national-commitments-sustainable?utm_source=openai))
Risks: Long-term maintenance of cleared areas, including management of abandoned ordnance in forests and mountains, remains challenging and resource intensive. If political relations in the South Caucasus deteriorate, cooperation on information sharing and border-adjacent demining could stall. Climate-driven changes in land use, such as expanded irrigation or new roads, might expose previously untouched contaminated zones.
Outlook: Ten years on, Azerbaijan can realistically reduce landmines from an acute national emergency to a serious but residual safety and development issue. Success would also give it influence in global mine-action norms and practices. Nonetheless, pockets of high risk will likely persist, demanding steady attention and funding.
20-Year
🌱 Twenty-Year Outlook: Near-Normalisation With Hotspots
Developments: By the mid-2040s, if current and projected efforts hold, most populated and intensively used regions of Azerbaijan could function with mine risk comparable to many other post-conflict states that have undergone sustained clearance. Agricultural landscapes and key ecosystems might recover, though scars from past contamination will remain. Azerbaijan's demining institutions may evolve into permanent agencies combining clearance, environmental restoration and civil protection functions.
Risks: Technological and institutional fatigue may erode safety margins if mine action is seen as "finished" while hazardous pockets remain. Economic pressures might incentivise risky use of marginal lands still harbouring mines and UXO. Record-keeping failures or data loss over decades could complicate management of residual hazards.
Outlook: Twenty years out, demining success will be judged less by the number of remaining mines than by the rarity of accidents and the vitality of affected communities. Azerbaijan is likely to bear a lighter, but ongoing, burden of legacy contamination. Sustaining institutional memory and risk-aware land management will be key to avoiding backsliding.
50-Year
🕊️ Fifty-Year Outlook: Legacy Management In A Changed Region
Developments: Half a century from now, direct memories of the original mine-laying will have largely faded, and mine action will be a specialised legacy-risk function. Technological advances may allow periodic sweeps that further reduce residual contamination, especially if autonomous systems become cheap and ubiquitous. The broader South Caucasus could be more interconnected economically, with former front lines integrated into transport and energy networks if political reconciliation progresses.
Risks: If regional conflicts re-ignite or new ones arise, fresh contamination could compound historical legacies. Institutional knowledge might decay, leading to complacency and occasional tragic incidents in long-neglected areas. Environmental changes, including shifting river courses or erosion, could uncover buried mines long after they were thought neutralised.
Outlook: Fifty years on, Azerbaijan's landmine problem can plausibly be shifted from a broad humanitarian crisis to a contained legacy issue, provided sustained clearance, governance and peace hold. The main danger is not technical impossibility but political or institutional failure. Long-term resilience will require embedding mine-risk awareness into culture, planning and environmental stewardship.